logical thinking process

Guest Blogger: H. William "Bill" Dettmer, Jonah's Jonah Logical Thinking Process THE ULTIMATE PAYOFF by H. William Dettmer & Jeff 'SKI' Kinsey Critical thinking is a means of assessing and evaluating the cause-and-effect relationships in complex systems. The interdependency among components of systems makes it extremely difficult to accurately evaluate the true causes behind the observed effects. A logical thinking methodology facilitates the sorting out and representation of the relationships between the system's components and the cause-and-effect that influences them. This enables an analyst to evaluate the validity of the evidence of causation and determine whether the assumed cause is, in fact the real cause. Without a means to apply critical thinking to specific situations, people can only resort to unstructured intuition - "gut feelings." The problem with intuition is that without a means to structure cause and effect, it's difficult for people to differentiate correlation from cause and effect. Correlation is the occurrence of two phenomena in close time proximity. Cause and effect is the relationship between two phenomena in which one can be demonstrably verified as the cause and the other the effect. The problem arises when correlation is assumed to be cause and effect, when in reality it is not. When decisions concerning changes in policy, allocations of resources, or financial commitments are made without a complete understanding of the cause and effect operating in a particular system - in other words, based on correlation, rather than cause and effect - the risk of undesirable outcomes dramatically increases. How can such situations be identified? During or after the fact, it's relatively easy to determine that they did happen. Did it take longer or require additional actions or decisions to achieve the desired result? If so, the true causality was probably not identified and the wrong actions or policies initiated.

"Doing the right thing the first time, with confidence, carries with it a key benefit to the organization: better cost-effectiveness of the resources applied."

In summary, the tools and methods of the "Logical Thinking Process" allow one to evaluate the potential for success before taking action! These tools are relatively quickly learned to a level of optimum effectiveness. How much money can you save (or avoid committing to ineffective activities) in just ninety (90) days?

To learn more, visit SKI's web site: www.applyingcommonsense.com/jonah

Eli Goldratt in San Diego

WHEN: January 12, 2006 Viable Vision Offer for San Diego, CA During this one day event, Dr Goldratt will reveal his concept of Viable Vision. Viable Vision is the strategy and SPECIFIC tactics to achieve, within 4 years, net profit equal to your total current sales. It sounds crazy, we know. But thousands of companies who have implemented Theory of Constraints have the results to back it up. This is NOT a seminar; it’s an opportunity to hear the world renowned business improvement expert, Dr. Goldratt, describe real cases and outstanding results. The Viable Vision Offer Event is the start to discovering how to break through your constraints using the scientifically-based, practical, Viable Vision concepts.

This is for CEOs and Presidents of firms with the desire to strategically grow their business. Register On-line with Goldratt Consulting Hosted at:

Rancho Bernardo Inn 17550 Bernardo Oaks Drive San Diego, CA 92128 Phone: 1 (800) 542-6096 or 1 (858) 675-8500 Fax: 1 (858) 675-8401 http://www.rbimeetings.com/registration.htm Group Code: 0601GOLDRA ----

There is still time for "C" level executives to register and participate. Besides, there are not too many spots in the USA nicer in January than San Diego. A true "win-win" scenario! Register now.

-ski

reduce stress

Guest Blogger: Dave Oakes from Achievers Training Season's Greetings from Dave with Achievers Here are some tips to help you reduce the stress in your life. Especially at Christmas!

1. Throw out nonessential numbers. This includes age, weight and height. Let the doctor worry about them. That is why you pay her.
2. Keep only cheerful friends. The grouches pull you down.
3. Keep learning. Learn more about the computer, crafts, gardening, whatever. Never let the brain idle. "An idle mind is the devil's workshop." And the devil's name is Alzheimer's.
4. Enjoy the simple things.
5. Laugh often, long and loud. Laugh until you gasp for breath.
6. The tears happen. Endure, grieve, and move on. The only person who is with us our entire life, is ourselves. Be ALIVE while you are alive.
7. Surround yourself with what you love, whether it's family, pets, keepsakes, music, plants, hobbies, whatever. Your home is your refuge.
8. Cherish your health: If it is good, preserve it. If it is unstable, improve it. If it is beyond what you can improve, get help.
9. Don't take guilt trips. Take a trip to the mall, to the next county, to a foreign country, but NOT to where the guilt is.
10. Tell those closest to you that you love them, at every opportunity.

Keep Your Chin Up, Dave Oakes www.achieverstraining.com

critical chain

Constraints Management meets Project Management If one could own only one book for any given author, this would be my Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt text. Actually, rather than a text, it is a business novel. It is set in a university or college setting. Most every business professional has found their way into a similar setting, no matter how briefly. It also deals with Project Management. Most everything one would like to accomplish in life, could be structured as a project. In Purple Curve Effect -- SKI's Throughput on Command, I suggested for those readers that catch the Constraints Management bug, Critical Chain should be their next, or first Goldratt book. For the reasons listed, and the fast pace that a business novel inspires. There is one more major reason: the Steel Mill example. In this day and age, as I am almost sure has always been true, there is much disbelief. Unwillingness to trust. Our collective trust has been violated as never before. And yet, I am going to tell you that there are silver bullets. Turn-arounds of unbelievable magnitude are possible in days. Yes, days. For years, I have approached projects with a "90 day mindest." Dramatic results have been delivered during these adventures. Goldratt's Viable Vision Offer explains to the diligent CEO how to achieve massive profits in just four years. But I digress... If you have not read this book, please put it on your list of things to do. If you want to create true throughput of staggering proportions, buy AND read it today. -ski

measurement business

Another must-have book on Throughput. Debra Smith brings great value to Constraints Management Method with her text on understanding measurements and accounting. Read my book review, PDF format: www.applyingcommonsense.com/consultski/measure.pdf -ski

world peace

For those that have seen my profile on ryze.com, you know that I want world peace. Who doesn't, right? Well as we have learned, there are a few outspoken jerks that don't -- but most of us do. Now, there is something that you can do. A small step to be sure. But a valueable step. Please consider joining this effort. I can vouch for Cindi Reiman and the team at AHA. If she is excited about this project, then I am excited about it. Cindi is one of those rare women that actually bring out the best in people, regardless of one's intent to watch from the sideline. Larger than life, and one of the folks that will always make Hilton Head Island home for me, she really cares. I am 100% sure that the world is already a better place, because Cindi was here. So it is with pleasure that I recommend EVERYONE check out World Peace Passport. www.worldpeacepassport.com/ -ski

catch a mouse

To Catch a Mouse Make a Noise Like a Cheese: Lewis Kornfeld ; Foreword by Clark Johnson Another "must have" for those involved in marketing mostly, sales too. My original (and brief, imagine that) review circa 1998 is still on Amazon dot com. -ski

tipping your movement

Which are you? Connector? Maven? Salesman? Malcolm Gladwell is a rare individual, applying common sense and logic where few have bothered to explore. His book, The Tipping Point, is a great business text. However, it was a little more than I could bring myself to read. So I asked a good friend, Ed McCullough to do so, and his review has become quite popular. Especially those familiar with Goldratt's TOC. Of course, his latest book, "Blink" is popular too. Since I had to shelf my magazine, TOCreview, some of the great pieces from it have been hard to locate. So, here is a new link to the review: www.ApplyingCommonSense.com/tipping.pdf Why did this article come to mind, at this point in time? I recently quoted Gladwell's article for The New Yorker, "The Talent Myth." Which should be required reading in every B School in the world... of course, it may already be required, for all I know! And this article caused me to search for my copy of Ed's review... Check "The New Yorker" archive for July 22, 2002 for the article. Of course Friday's post about throughput brought it to mind as well.

-ski

creating throughput

Association is key. We all tell our kids, "be careful who you associate with!" Surfing tonight led me to Fox News, and some great video of Steve Forbes and a panel discussing the housing situation. Boom or Bust? Neither: maybe not boom Which led me to consider some of my successes, hence the photo of the Sony handheld digital recorder. When I created TOCreview magazine, the tipping point was being able to capture my enthusiasm and brainstorming session as I drove back from hearing Eli Goldratt in 'Naptown to Hilton Head Island. What tips you to action? -ski

daytona beach bike week

time is running out if you would like to order YOUR uniquely yours, Red Horse motorcycle for Daytona Beach Bike Week in Daytona Beach, Florida. held March 3rd - 12th 2006. call in the next few days, no later than December 10th to get your bike order in progress. www.TurismoCycles.com -ski